this is bbc news. the headlines. at least ten people are believed to have been killed in a mass shooting at a grocery store in the us city of buffalo in new york state. the 18—year—old suspect has been taken into custody. police are calling it a hate crime and an act of "racially motivated violent extremism." the mayor of ukraine's second—largest city kharkiv has told the bbc that russian troops have withdrawn from his city — which has been under constant bombardment since the invasion began. but, president zelensky has said the situation in the eastern donbas region remains very difficult. abortion rights supporters are protesting in cities across the united states

against a probable supreme court decision to overturn the roe v. wade case, that legalised abortion nationwide. large rallies have taken place in houston, new york, washington, los angeles and chicago. now on bbc news — unspun world. hello, and thanks forjoining me for unspun world — the programme where we tap into the bbc�*s unrivalled array of experts worldwide to get the unadorned facts about what's really going on. this week, can vladimir putin survive his army's widespread lack of success in ukraine?

he sounded as if he was trying to argue that this is not a mistake, believe me — as if he was pleading his case in a way. is the war entering a new phase? both sides are trying to assess where they go next, how long they can last, how much ammunition they've got. and how has it all gone so badly wrong for one of the world's most delightful cities, beirut? the lights have just gone off. 0h, they've come back on again. is that a thing that people have to go through all the time? 0h, three to four times a day. last monday, victory day in russia, looked like being a moment when we'd find out what direction president putin seems to be taking his war in ukraine. would he make nuclear threats against nato? would he announce full—scale mobilisation?

would he declare outright war on ukraine? these were all things which had been nervously suggested by western officials beforehand. but he didn't do any of them. he just talked about sacrifice and nobility, and said russia was defending itself against nato aggression. the one thing he couldn't do on victory day was to declare victory over ukraine, because he hasn't achieved anything of the sort. assuming that the war simply drags on, what will the consequences be for vladimir putin himself? i went to see the news editor for bbc�*s russia service, famil ismailov. he sounded as if he was trying to argue that this is not a mistake, believe me — as if he was pleading his case in a way, and he was talking about something that people need to be made sure, confident about. and that made him look

a bit unsure of himself, and that didn't go unnoticed, as many other small things on that day, including equipment that was presented but was never seen at the front line. so these are things that they haven't used in ukraine. some of the things never appeared in ukraine, like the tank t—m armata. that is a brand—new russian main battle tank, and we've never seen it in battle. why, people would ask. do you think, though, that vladimir putin understands that it's gone so wrong? i think he does and he doesn't at the same time. i think the generals probably try to tell him that the operation, as they call it, did not go according to plan and probably won't go to the plan. so they had to change the plan itself to make it more achievable, and we can see now on the battlefield in ukraine, south of ukraine and east of ukraine. at the same time, there had

been expectations that he might ramp up tensions by announcing mobilisation and declare officially a war. but that didn't happen, and there are lots of speculations why it didn't happen. maybe because he is not very sure that his population, that the russians are ready to accept his total war message. what, people might actually refuse to turn up to be mobilised? indeed, yes. we see people trying to make sure that they are outside the country. every 9th of may, they have the big march which is called immortal regiment. people are walking with the pictures of their loved ones, their grandfathers. but this time many people, not a lot, but many people had pictures of the loved ones, the grandfathers and grandmothers who died in the war with the protesting slogans on them like,

"not in my name," like, "this is not my war." and some of them got arrested. and the interesting thing is that this has happened now, and we've seen more than two months of battles. we've seen lots of repressions against people who stand up against the war. actually, any anti—war message had been stopped. the latest opinion poll said that 80% of people supported putin. do you think... is that fake, or is there that amount of support? well, there is support, there is credible support for the war, and there's credible support for mr putin. because for years and years, we've seen a lot of propaganda. we see that people support the message, because they don't have access to anything else. if something happens to putin, if somebody taps him on the shoulder and says, "it's finished, mr president," that will be somebody from within the system, not from outside.

social resentment would have to come to such a point that lots of people who control political, military and security systems in russia would see no other way but to make sure that, after putin, something that comes after putin is different. there has to be a kind of a perfect alignment of all different conditions. and i don't think that the russian population at the moment is ready to say, "yes, we're back to reconnect to the rest of the world." one of the big surprises about the ukraine war has been the response of nato. before the russian invasion, american leadership seemed abysmally weak. rememberjoe biden�*s decision to pull out of afghanistan? france openly questioned whether nato still had any function to perform, and member countries

from britain to germany and italy were starting to get nervous about the alliance�*s future. and then vladimir putin's decision to go into ukraine showed that nato did indeed have a very real purpose. so far, the alliance has kept pretty much together, but can that continue? our diplomatic correspondent james landale. both sides are trying to assess where they go next, how long they can last, how much ammunition they've got. you know, both sides are getting through a substantial amount of military kit and materiel, and, you know, this stuff is finite. but it means that, at the moment, both sides are just sort of settling down. the great russian offensive in the east has stalled, to a certain extent — little bits gained here, little bits lost there, but no substantial move. i was in ankara when president putin talked

to president erdogan of turkey, and it sounded then as though putin was really mostly concerned at that stage — having failed to capture kyiv — that he was mostly concerned with getting territory to be able to say, "we've got this, and we've consolidated our hold on crimea." i think both sides are trying to get as much territory as they possibly can, so that when any kind of peace talks, any kind of negotiations begin, they're both in the optimum position, they're in the strongest position they can possibly get. and so from the russian point of view, that means, yes, as much territory in the east and also as much territory in the south, alongside, you know, the black sea along to crimea, so that they can consolidate that, and so that there's a demonstrable gain that can be sold back to the russian people. whether that is achievable is a matter for debate. you know, a big question

for the west is how much military kit is provided to ukraine, notjust to defend itself, but also to produce counter—offensives — in other words, to take territory back. let's turn to the nato alliance. does it surprise you that it's held together so well? yes, nato's had a new lease of life. if you remember, just a few years ago, macron, president macron of france, described it as brain—dead, because it wasn't thinking about what it should do next, where it should go, slightly aimless. now, of course, it has a very clear aim, which is to deter russian aggression. it is motivated. there's a greater willingness to spend on defence spending, which has been the great reluctance of many europeans. the americans are very happy about this, because they've always seen that europeans are free riding over american tax dollars that have been paying for europe's defence. i think the interesting question is, how long does that nato unity survive?

because there are some big challenges coming up, where potentially you could get differences. how do people want this war to end? at the moment, obviously, the west is at one with ukraine, but if ukraine suddenly says, right, there's a peace deal, we want to do this, and under that peace deal, russia is going to keep some territory along the south, is that acceptable to some western countries, who've made it very clear that russia should not be seen to gain territory, to cross borders, to change the geography of europe by force? it is definitely going to get bigger, isn't it? finland and sweden — certainly finland, probably sweden — willjoin. the geopolitics of the north, the nordics, isjust transformed by this. both sweden and finland have histories, cultures of neutrality, for different reasons. that has been blown out of the water by the threat from russia that they now see,

and therefore there is an expectation that they will both go down the road ofjoining nato. nato's now got more troops, more forces on russia's borders as ever before. anyone who's seen the pro—russian mercenary force, the wagner group, in operation, knows how ferocious they are. from donbas to crimea in 2014, wagner has played an often savagely violent role alongside the russians in syria, libya and the central african republic. allegations of murder, rape and torture seem to follow them wherever they go. since last year, they've been operating in the vast west african state of mali, at the invitation of the military government there. french troops who had been fighting islamist guerrillas in the country were obliged to leave. beverly ochieng, an africa

specialist from bbc monitoring, covers the war against thejihadists in mali. she spoke to me from nairobi. french forces were not able to operate in an environment that was becoming increasingly hostile to their presence, particularly in the capital. in the northern regions, there is disquiet about russian involvement, definitely, because they were protected very much by french forces being present. but russian forces are coming with an aggression, they're coming with allegations of abuses. it feels as if to some extent there's a feeling that the government is losing touch with what it is to fight the insurgency while not keeping civilians in the crossfire. that's leading to some criticism in some places — but not enough for it to dislodge russian presence at the moment. we're seeing critical media also losing its voice, because malian authorities have become increasingly intolerant towards any criticism, anything about russian involvement. is it a part of a general kind of anti—colonial feeling

in that part of africa, or is it a specifically anti—french thing? so it's a lot to do with how france is relating to countries now at a post—colonial time, at a time where people are asking for more volition from their leaders and for less dependency. of course, it's interesting, because now stepping into that is russia, which seems to be sort of... in a way, i think it's co—opting some of these pan—africanist movements, it presents itself as not having been a coloniser, and that's some of the propaganda that we've been seeing, especially with the war in ukraine. so it seems like a friendly force, but it's still a rather naive relationship. are we starting to see civilians being killed by russian troops, by the wagner mercenaries? some of the accounts that started to emerge, both from french media, some local media accounts, did say that civilians were rounded up. they were either summarily

executed, some were abused. there were allegations of rape, there were allegations of mass killings, and about 300 to 400 people may have been killed. of course, this is not going to be acknowledged by the government or even by wagner. they blocked, the malian government has blocked, the un mission from coming in to investigate. russia blocked a request in the un security council for an independent panel to look into these atrocities. and then in addition to this, there were also concerns that rights groups will not be able to get any access to the civilians who did witness these atrocities. now, of course, all of this is supposedly about stopping the threat from islamic state and other islamist groups. what actually has been the effect on the insurgents? these militants, they impose a harsh version of the sharia law in many places that they occupy. there are large swaths

of the central region where farming activities are nearly impossible, which means that food security is extremely heightened. there's a lack of food for many people. schools are being shut down, which means that students are not able to access education. and there are reports that some are even being indoctrinated by groups. so it doesn't sound as though the russians are the solution to the problem any more than the french were. they want to present themselves as a hero, as a brave force that is here to save mali. it's not clear if they have any political intentions. if anything, wagner has largely been seen as an exploitative force. the deal it has with mali is, what, $10 million a month, which is including cash as well as reserves to minerals. it doesn't feel as if there is a clear counter—narrative, at least for now, against russian involvement. abortion law is one of the growing number of issues that divide opinion so sharply

in the united states nowadays. the leaking of a draft opinion paper from the us supreme court indicating that the landmark judgement from 1973 in the roe v wade case might be overturned has broughtjoy, anger and bitterness. but what does it mean for american politics? i turn to our north america correspondent, anthony zurcher. i think it is going to have a very real effect on american politics, particularly this year with midterm congressional elections looming in november. with roe v wade potentially being struck down and all of this being handed back to the states where individual state legislatures can decide on the legality of the abortion. so you have states that could ban abortion entirely. you could have states that could make it very easy to get an abortion, may be easy to get public support, public financing for abortion, and the states

doing battle to impose their political preferences on other states. so it is vastly going to change the way this debate happens and make it much more political in a very real sense. would you say thatjoe biden�*s been strengthened by all this? obviously, i don't think any democrats wanted this decision to come down, but i think it does help the democrats and joe biden going into these midterm elections. this was shaping up to be a good year for republicans. midterm elections usually hinge on enthusiasm and the party that doesn't have power, their voters are much more enthusiastic about showing up at the polls and voting themselves back into office. what the abortion, potential overruling of roe v wade and abortion becoming an electoral issue, that is going to get a lot more democrats interested and engaged in politics this year. and if that happens, then theirfortunes, democratic fortunes at the ballot box could improve.

by no means guaranteed, it's still going to be a difficult environment for democrats. the polls show the american public, by and large, supports some form of legalised abortion, particularly in a lot of these key battleground swing states where control of congress will be decided. i've been waiting for donald trump to claim responsibility, as it were, for it by saying that he appointed the necessary number ofjudges to the supreme court to have this effect. he hasn't said that yet. is there a reason for that? this is donald trump's doing. this is something that he accomplished, his victory in 2016 instead of hillary clinton vastly changed the the political makeup of the supreme court. so i don't know why he's not taking credit for it yet. he may. honestly, donald trump was in favour of abortion rights for most of his adult life. he only changed and became really anti abortion when he started considering

running for republican office. so maybe there's a certain amount of remorse over the fact that this could change. or maybe he's hearing from people around him who are not happy with the prospect of roe v wade being reversed. or maybe he understands, he does have a good political sense, maybe he understands the risks associated with republicans crowing too much about about giving states the ability to make abortion illegal. that this might not be a winning issue politically for the party as a whole and for him if he decides to run again. ah, well, that's the thing. what's your instinct? is he going to run again? you know, i go back and forth. i think that he would like to run again. i think that he wants that kind of vindication. so much of his political career has been about proving the naysayers wrong. i think he would want to be president again. i don't know whether he has the stomach for the long, gruelling race. and he may...

he's going to be coy about it. i think he's going to flirt with the idea. when it comes right down to it, ifind it hard to believe that he would go through it again. and make a prediction aboutjoe biden. will he stand for a second term? i think he'll stand for a second term. this is the culminating moment of his political career, of his life. he's finally gotten the prize, the white house. that is a very difficult thing to give up. i think unless he is, you know, his health is such that it makes it impossible to run, i think he will run and try to win that second term. lebanon was once upon a time the jewel of the middle east. relaxed, wealthy, sophisticated and delightful. but ever since the 1970s, it's been invaded by its neighbours, wracked with political and religious violence.

and in august 2020, partly destroyed by a gigantic explosion in a store of ammonium nitrate kept at the port of beirut. since then, things have got even worse. why? i asked carine torbey of bbc arabic, who's based in beirut, to explain. there are so many basic services that are not available or not available for everyone at a good quality at the moment, which makes the whole standard of living extremely poor. lebanon has a very large diaspora and there are so many families that at the moment are still able to live, you know, with a very minimal standard of living because they have someone somewhere sending them money from abroad. that at the moment has huge value because of the devaluation of the local currency. so now it has become, you know, like a small monthly fortune that many families

are receiving and that is helping them go by. now, we've got these elections coming up. are they going to change anything, do you think? you have this huge diversity that, you know, on paper, it looks absolutely great to have all these people living together. but when it comes to decision making, when it comes to how you make things work... the lights have just gone off. is that... 0h, they've come back on again. is that part of the kind of thing that people have to go through all the time? well, three to four times a day, you know, children, theyjust, you know, even children at home, they arrange their plans, what to watch on tv, depending on what time they will have electricity or not, because this is, you know, this is the daily routine for everyone. and it has been routine for a very long time, and now it's getting worse. so i was saying that, you know, to go back to your question, this is a country where there is a huge variety of religions,

where everyone is, you know, there is this sort of power sharing system and everyone has to agree on everything to make it work. and it's impossible to get everyone to agree on everything, to make anything work. you're lebanese. what does all this make you feel about your country? extremely sad, extremely sad and very disappointed because i know my country. i know that there are lots of potential in this country and i know that people who leave the country are successful in so many parts of the world. and i know there is so much potential in this country. you talk about all the external influences. i mean, one of the really serious ones is, of course, the war in syria and lebanon having to take in so many refugees. lebanon has taken in around one million syrian refugees. and if you count the lebanese population living in lebanon, you will get around three to four million lebanese people inside lebanon.

we cannot afford any more. this is a huge strain on the infrastructure, on the economy and on everything. so it is a big challenge for the country. it has been going on for ten years and there is some sort of international fatigue about the syrian refugee crisis. do you think that maybe in ten years, 15 years, the political system might come together and improve things in lebanon? or do you think it's reallyjust going to carry on stumbling on like this? in a country as small as lebanon, in such a strategic region as the middle east, and with so many players, you never know what can happen, what can change. but also we have a small margin where we can do something. the problem is whether wejust leave it until something happens that is much bigger than all of us or that we do, we take that baby step that we can take to make

a very tiny difference. there are elections. people, some people, are really hopeful that there will be change, even if it's an incremental change. they think that some sort of a change, course of change has been set and it will take time, but it is going to happen. it's inevitable that things will change. carine torbey speaking to me from beirut. vladimir putin's war has been a pretty incompetent affair so far. poor intelligence, inadequate military planning, confused command structure, low morale, unimpressive weaponry. before he agrees to any kind of ceasefire, mr putin will need to capture large stretches of ukrainian territory, partly to show the russian people it was worth all their sacrifice and partly to have something to negotiate with. but that'll take more time and cost more lives. still, if western analysts

are right, the nuclear threat is probably a bit less serious than it seemed a week or so ago. if true, that's something to be gratefulfor, at least. i hope you'lljoin me again soon for unspun world. until then, goodbye. hello there. it was a perfect start to the weekend with hardly a cloud in the sky and a lot of warm, spring sunshine on saturday but all that could potentially change at the start of sunday as we see this little fella enhancing some sharp possibly thundery downpours first thing in the morning. they will be hit and miss, some heavier ones moving through the midlands and into south—east england and they will gradually drift steadily north as we go through the afternoon. an improving picture with more

sunshine and warmth returning and if you miss those showers in western scotland, you should see highs of 20 degrees as well. through sunday night into monday morning, we do it all again as another frequent rash of showers potentially merging together for longer spells of rain, start to drift their way steadily northwards so as we go through the day on monday, we'll see a band of more persistent rain moving through northern england, northern ireland into central and southern scotland. once again behind it, a few isolated showers but more sunshine and warmth with highs of 23 degrees.

this is bbc news. i'm david eades. our top stories... ten people have been killed in a mass shooting by a lone gunman at a grocery store in the us city of buffalo. we are investigating this incident as both a hate crime and a case of racially motivated, violent extremism. the 18—year—old suspect who drove for a number of hours to reach the supermarket has been taken into custody. he took his gun, he put it down. he did put something on his feet. he took his vest off, and then he got on his hands and knees and got on his back, and then they arrested him. the mayor of kharkiv tells

the bbc russian troops have withdrawn from his city — which has been under